XAUUSD Gold Forecast & Trade Setups – February 18, 2026

📊 Intraday Analysis

XAUUSD — Gold Analysis & Forecast · Feb 18, 2026

Spot Gold · XAUUSD · Not financial advice

Gold dropped over 2% yesterday, hitting a low of $4,853. Today it's bouncing back — trading around $4,934, up ~1.1% from yesterday's close. Everything today comes down to one event: FOMC Minutes at 7 PM ET.

📌 Key Levels Today

Resistance

$4,980 → $5,040 → $5,100

Support

$4,900 → $4,857 → $4,785

Current Price

~ $4,918 – $4,934

Yesterday's Low

$4,853

🗓️ The Big Event — FOMC Minutes

FOMC Meeting Minutes (January)

⏰ 19:00 UTC · 7:00 PM ET · 12:30 AM IST (Feb 19)

Markets expect the first rate cut in June 2026. Two Fed officials gave opposite signals:

Goolsbee (Chicago Fed): 🟢 "Several more rate cuts possible if inflation cools."

Barr (Fed Governor): 🔴 "Rates should stay on hold for some time."

🕐 Session Bias

🌏 Asian

China on holiday. Very thin volume. Tight range $4,880–$4,930. No big moves expected.

🏦 London

Watch for a fake dip below $4,857 before recovery, or grind up to $4,943–$4,960 then rejection.

🗽 New York — Slow drift before 7 PM ET. Explosive move on FOMC. Stay small into the event. Real setup is post-minutes only.

⚡ Post-FOMC Scenarios

🟢 Dovish: Break above $4,980 → target $5,040 then $5,100. Enter on retest only, never chase the spike.

🔴 Hawkish: Break below $4,850 → next target $4,785. Strong Dollar + delayed cuts = sellers win.

🟡 No Surprise: Price stays stuck $4,880–$4,960. Wait for Friday's PCE for the next catalyst.

🎯 Trade Ideas for Today

Setup 1 · LONG 🟢 RR 1:4.8

London Session · Sweep + flip

Entry

$4,852–$4,858

$4,828

TP1 / TP2

$4,935 / $4,985

Setup 2 · SHORT 🔴 RR 1:3.4

London / Early NY · Resistance reject

Entry

$4,943–$4,950

$4,976

TP1 / TP2

$4,898 / $4,857

Setup 3 · LONG 🟢 RR 1:4.4

Post-FOMC NY · Break + retest

Entry

$4,970–$4,978

$4,948

TP1 / TP2

$5,040 / $5,110

#	Bias	Session	Entry	SL	TP1	TP2	RR
1	LONG 🟢	London	$4,852–$4,858 sweep + flip	$4,828	$4,935	$4,985	1:4.8
2	SHORT 🔴	London / Early NY	$4,943–$4,950 resistance reject	$4,976	$4,898	$4,857	1:3.4
3	LONG 🟢	Post-FOMC NY	$4,970–$4,978 break + retest	$4,948	$5,040	$5,110	1:4.4

🔒 Risk Rules

📐 Risk max 1–2% of your account per trade. No exceptions.
🎯 Hit TP1? Take 30% off and move stop to breakeven immediately.
⚡ Before 7 PM ET — reduce size or tighten stop. FOMC can spike 50–80 points instantly.
📅 Don't hold overnight. Friday has PCE + GDP — too risky to carry positions blind.

⚠️ Personal analysis only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before entering any trade.

XAUUSD Gold Analysis & Forecast – February 18, 2026 | Intraday Trade Setups

XAUUSD — Gold Analysis & Forecast · Feb 18, 2026

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